President Trump's Fiscal 2019 Budget

Fiscal 2019 Budget.jpg

President Trump released his Fiscal 2019 Budget plan this past week. It's rare for Congress to adopt a President's budget. However, it's the first step in the budgetary process, and it outlines the President's plans and priorities.

Below are some highlights of President Trump's plan.

  • Total Fiscal 2019 spending is projected to be $4.4 trillion, with $716 billion allocated for defense and $18 billion to build a wall along the southern border.
  • Additional $200 billion of spending for infrastructure, which was part of the President's $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan.
  • U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3% annually.
  • The Fiscal 2019 and 2020 deficits will be approximately $1 trillion each year before slowly decreasing.
  • The plan doesn't project a balanced budget within the next 10 years, and the deficit at the end of the decade is expected to be $450 billion.
  • The U.S. will overspend in excess of $7 trillion over the next decade, pushing the national debt to nearly $28 trillion.
  • The President wants to reduce domestic spending by more than $3 trillion over the decade, despite the agreement by Congress last week to increase domestic spending by $300 billion.

If you recall, President Trump campaigned on balancing the budget and addressing the $20 trillion national debt. Even though his budget isn't likely to become law, it demonstrates the difficulty our leaders face in trying to reduce federal spending and balance the budget. They may have good intentions, but the harsh realities of the difficult choices required and the potential political backlash make it near impossible to achieve.

This is just the first step in the budgetary process, but if the President, who campaigned on fiscal restraint, doesn't propose a balanced budget, don't expect Congress to pass one on their own.

The Fiscal 2017 Deficit

The U.S. government's fiscal year ended on September 30, and a new year began on October 1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the Fiscal 2017 deficit was $668 billion, which is $81 billion more than Fiscal 2016. A year ago, the CBO was projecting the Fiscal 2017 deficit would be less than Fiscal 2016, not $81 billion more. The chart below compares the monthly deficit or surplus to the prior year.

FY 2017 Deficit September.jpg

Total government revenues increased by 1%, but expenditures increased by nearly 3%. As a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Fiscal 2017 deficit was approximately 3.5% of GDP, up from 3.2% in Fiscal 2016. It's also the second consecutive year the deficit rose as a percentage of GDP, which indicates government spending is growing faster than the U.S. economy.

We're already two weeks into the new fiscal year, and Congress is still a long ways from deciding on government spending for the coming year. To prevent a government shutdown, Congress approved a Continuing Resolution, that effectively continues all Fiscal 2017 spending until mid-December. Since it's unlikely Congress will enact the necessary monetary legislation until close to the deadline, spending for nearly one-fourth of the year will be equal to or greater than last year. Unless Congress enacts spending cuts (which it has been unable to do so far), they have created a situation where the Fiscal 2018 deficit will likely be higher than the most recent $668 billion deficit.

Are you concerned the federal government spent $668 billion more than it received during the last year?