Fiscal 2019 Deficit Through August

Below is a chart tracking the monthly deficit of the U.S. government for the current fiscal year, in comparison to last year (Fiscal 2018). The deficit through the first eleven months was in excess of $1 trillion. Since September is a month when tax payments are due, the September surplus should push the deficit for the year below $1 trillion… but not by much.

Since September 1 occurred on the weekend, certain payments that would normally be paid in September were paid in August. This shift in timing increased the August deficit by $24 billion. A similar timing shift happened in 2018. Even with this timing differential, the year-to-date deficit is $168 billion more than last year.

What do you think about federal spending that has exceeded revenues by more than $1 trillion over the past 11 months?

Fiscal 2019 Deficit Through July

Below is a chart comparing the current year U.S. budget deficit with the prior fiscal year. Through the end of July, the federal government has overspent by $867 billion.

The current year-to-date deficit is $182 billion more than the deficit through July 2018. It’s also more than the deficit for all of Fiscal 2018 (the fiscal year ends on September 30). Based on the current spending, the annual deficit for Fiscal 2019 will exceed $1 trillion.

The last time the deficit exceeded $1 trillion, the U.S. was spending to stave off another Great Depression. At present, the economy is not in recession. Instead, the stock market is reaching all-time record levels, unemployment is at records lows and the economy is booming. Despite these prosperous times, Congress and the President continue to overspend with little regard for the future, or how the U.S. national debt is going to be repaid.

Are you concerned with a $1 trillion annual deficit in the midst of economic prosperity?

Fiscal 2019 Deficit Through June

Below is a chart comparing the monthly deficit or surplus for Fiscal 2019 in comparison with Fiscal 2018. Through the first nine months of this fiscal year, the U.S. government overspent by $746 billion, which is $139 billion more than last fiscal year.

The deficit for July was only $9 billion. This primarily due to $50 billion of July expenditures which were paid in June, since July 1 fell on a Saturday.

Government receipts were up by 3 percent for the first nine months of Fiscal 2019. However, expenditures were up by 7 percent. With this 4 percent spread, it’s easy to see why the deficit has grown by another $139 billion this year.

How sustainable do you think it is for expenditures increase by more than double the rate of revenues?

Fiscal 2019 Deficit Through May

The chart below compares the U.S. government’s monthly deficit or surplus for Fiscal Year 2019 with Fiscal Year 2018. Through the end of May, which is seven months into the fiscal year, the U.S. government has overspent by $738 billion.

To make a fair comparison, the May deficit is $50 billion higher, because of June payments made in May. Since June 1 was on Saturday, certain expenditures were paid in May instead of June. If you subtract out this extra $50 billion the deficit was still $688 billion, which is still $155 billion more than the prior seven month period. The CBO still estimates the Fiscal 2019 deficit will be less than $1 trillion, but it wouldn’t take much disruption, either from an economic slowdown or unexpected expenditures, to push beyond the $1 trillion mark.

Excluding the $50 billion timing, the U.S. government is overspending in excess of $22 billion per month. How does that affect you?

Fiscal 2018 Deficit by Month

The graph below charts the monthly budget deficit or surplus of the U.S. government for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2018. The cumulative deficit for Fiscal 2018 was $782 billion, which was slightly less than initially projected.

Because of the timing for month-end payments, approximately $55 billion of expenditures that normally would have been paid in September, were paid in August. This timing difference caused the August deficit and September surplus to be much larger than normal.

As depicted in the graph, the government spent more than it receives nine months out of the year. The surpluses in January, April and September correspond with the timing of when estimated tax payments are due. However, the excess in these three months was not large enough to pay for the other nine months of overspending.

What do you think of a budget that overspends nine out of twelves months?

Fiscal 2018 Deficit through August

The chart below compares the monthly deficit for Fiscal 2018 with Fiscal 2017. The cumulative deficit for the first 11 months of the year is $895 billion.

The federal government recorded a whopping $210 billion deficit for August. Since September 1 occurred on Saturday, the government paid approximately $55 billion of expenditures in August which normally would have been paid in September. Excluding this timing difference, the U.S. still would have overspent by $155 billion.

The acceleration of the $55 billion payments into August and the September tax collections will likely result in a monthly surplus for September. However, the U.S. government will overspend in excess of $800 billion this year.

Are you concerned the federal government will record a deficit in excess of $800 billion this year?

The Cost of Higher Interest Rates

The amount of interest paid by the U.S. government is one of the fastest growing expenditures of the federal government. With a national debt in excess of $21 trillion, small increases in the interest rate results in the government paying billions of dollars in additional interest.

Interest rates have been at historic lows for nearly a decade, but rates are starting to rise. This is good news for investors, but bad news for the federal government. With a $21 trillion debt, a 1% rise in the interest rate will cost the U.S. government $210 billion of additional interest. As illustrated in the chart below, that is more than the federal government spent on eight Departments last year.

This additional interest cost will add to the annual overspending and make it more difficult to balance the budget. It will also exacerbate the budget battles in Congress.

Broken Process = Bad Results

If you’re concerned about the continued rise in the federal debt, you’re probably not very pleased with the spending bill that recently passed Congress. The $1.3 trillion spending plan, only covers about 25% of total federal spending. The U.S. government spends another $3 trillion for what is classified as mandatory spending (e.g. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest on the debt). 

Although there are a lot of aspects to increased spending, the process is a contributing factor. As one Representative opined, “Nothing good comes from legislation passed at the deadline.” Members of Congress know that last-minute, must-pass legislation is an opportunity for a lot of pork-barrel spending.

Congress has a budget and spending process but hasn’t followed it for years. The process begins with a proposed budget by the President in February. Congress then passes it’s own Budget Resolution by May, followed by 12 different Appropriations (spending) bills, that can be enacted before the beginning of the fiscal year on October 1.

For the current fiscal year, Congress didn’t pass its Budget Resolution until November and just passed the spending bill in March; nearly 6 months after the fiscal started. Instead of passing 12 different spending bills, everything was rolled into one massive 2,200+ page bill, that was passed within 24 hours of being written. 

Following the process doesn’t guarantee a balanced budget or reduced spending. However, Congress’ failure  to follow its budget process is helping to drive increased federal spending.

Do you agree the broken process is leading to bad fiscal results?

Fiscal 2018 Deficit Through February

Below is a graph tracking the deficit of the U.S. government by month, in comparison to the prior fiscal year. Through February 28, 2018 (five months into the current fiscal year), the federal government has overspent by $392 billion.

See the big blue line for February? That shows the federal government overspent by approximately $216 billion; just in February. Considering there are only 28 days in February, our government overspent by nearly $8 billion each day.

Any rational person would have to admit this is unsustainable, yet Congress seems to have little time, attention or political willpower to anything about it.

What do you think about the current spending pattern of the U.S. government?

Fiscal 2018 Deficit through January

Below is a graph comparing the monthly federal deficit for Fiscal 2018 in comparison to Fiscal 2017.

The deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year was $174 billion. This is $17 billion higher than the deficit for the first four months of 2017. January's surplus is primarily driven by individuals who pay their last installment of 2017 estimated taxes in early January.

Starting January 1, 2018, the U.S. Treasury expects to receive less tax revenue as a result of the tax reform legislation passed in December 2017. To avoid a government shutdown last in early February, Congress also agreed increase defense and discretionary domestic spending. Therefore, you can expect to see a the deficit each month continue to exceed the prior year, for the rest of Fiscal 2018.

Are you concerned with a rising federal deficit?

President Trump's Fiscal 2019 Budget

President Trump released his Fiscal 2019 Budget plan this past week. It's rare for Congress to adopt a President's budget. However, it's the first step in the budgetary process, and it outlines the President's plans and priorities.

Below are some highlights of President Trump's plan.

• Total Fiscal 2019 spending is projected to be $4.4 trillion, with $716 billion allocated for defense and $18 billion to build a wall along the southern border.
• Additional $200 billion of spending for infrastructure, which was part of the President's $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan.
• U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3% annually.
• The Fiscal 2019 and 2020 deficits will be approximately $1 trillion each year before slowly decreasing.
• The plan doesn't project a balanced budget within the next 10 years, and the deficit at the end of the decade is expected to be $450 billion.
• The U.S. will overspend in excess of $7 trillion over the next decade, pushing the national debt to nearly $28 trillion.
• The President wants to reduce domestic spending by more than $3 trillion over the decade, despite the agreement by Congress last week to increase domestic spending by $300 billion.

If you recall, President Trump campaigned on balancing the budget and addressing the $20 trillion national debt. Even though his budget isn't likely to become law, it demonstrates the difficulty our leaders face in trying to reduce federal spending and balance the budget. They may have good intentions, but the harsh realities of the difficult choices required and the potential political backlash make it near impossible to achieve.

This is just the first step in the budgetary process, but if the President, who campaigned on fiscal restraint, doesn't propose a balanced budget, don't expect Congress to pass one on their own.

Fiscal 2018 Deficit through December

Below is a graph comparing the monthly deficit for Fiscal 2018 with Fiscal 2017.

The preliminary December deficit was $26 billion, which is $1 billion less than December 2017. The cumulative deficit for the first three months is $20 billion more than the prior year. Revenues for the first quarter have risen by 4%, but expenditures have risen by 5%. 

Since Congress has yet to finalize the spending for Fiscal 2018. The final appropriations bills could reduce spending and shrink the projected deficit, or they could increase spending and enlarge the deficit.

Do you expect the current year deficit will be larger or smaller than last year?

A New Year - A New Budget

If you're like a lot of people, you create a budget at the beginning of the new year. Budgets are a great way to manage your finances. Putting your income and expenses down on paper can help you better understand how much margin you have in your spending, or if it looks like you're going to come up short. Budgets may not account for every expense or event that may happen, but they are effective financial tools to help you understand your financial obligations, establish priorities and manage your cash flow.

The U.S. government also has an annual budget. However, its fiscal year starts on October 1 rather than January 1. The budget resolution is passed by Congress but doesn't require the signature of the President. The federal budget establishes the guidelines, and the specific spending is determined by separate appropriations bills. 

Although Congress has a budget and spending process, it rarely follows it anymore. Congress didn't pass the Fiscal 2018 budget until November, and none of the appropriations bill have been passed, even though we're more than three months into the current fiscal year. Congress has passed short-term continuing resolutions to keep the U.S. government from shutting down. 

Budgets can be useful financial tools, if used effectively. Individually, budgets should be more than an exercise you conduct at the beginning of the year. You should periodically review and update your budget to check your progress. For the federal government, it should pass a budget and the related appropriations bills before the start of the fiscal year, rather than after several months have passed.

How effective would you rate the federal government's budget process?

Mandatory Spending - Not Necessarily

Congress essentially classifies federal spending as either discretionary or mandatory.

Discretionary spending is not fixed or guaranteed and is subject to annual appropriations. Since it's discretionary, in theory anything can be added or eliminated. In practicality, only a small percentage of discretionary spending is actually subject to change. Consider regulatory agencies like the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These agencies might make some changes by adding staff, eliminating programs or shifting resources, but they can't dramatically alter operations every year. Therefore, most discretionary expenditures are somewhat fixed.

Mandatory spending doesn't require annual appropriations and is essentially on auto-pilot. The spending is typically based on some eligibility criteria and it expenditure is made as long as the criteria is met. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are the three largest types of mandatory spending. Although Congress treats mandatory expenditures as beyond of their control, all mandatory spending can be changed or eliminated by passing new legislation. For example, Congress can raise the age of eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits from 67 to 70 by passing a new law, which would cause Social Security spending to decrease for the year. Politically it may be difficult, but it can be done.

Although nearly two-thirds of all current federal spending is classified as mandatory and on auto-pilot. Congress has the Constitutional power to change any and all federal spending, if they choose; both discretionary and mandatory. In short... Congress controls all spending and balancing the budget may not be easy, but it can be done.

Status of the Fiscal 2017 Budget Legislation

As described in the prior post, Congress is supposed to pass a Budget Resolution followed by 12 separate Appropriations Bills. With one week left before Fiscal 2017 starts, the status of the 13 different pieces of legislation is outlined below.

• The Budget Resolution - Passed out of the House Budget Committee on March 16, 2016. It has not been voted upon by the entire House of Representatives or the Senate.
• Agriculture - Passed by the House and Senate Committees by May 19th but not voted on by either Chamber.
• Commerce/Justice/Science - Passed by the House and Senate Committees by April 21 but not voted on by either Chamber.
• Defense - Passed by the House on June 16 but Senate twice rejected a cloture motion required to vote on the House bill.
• Energy and Water - Passed by the House and Senate but waiting on a Conference Committee to reconcile the differences.
• Financial Services - Passed by the House on July 7 but no vote by the Senate.
• Homeland Security - Passed by the House and Senate Committees by May 26 but not voted on by either Chamber.
• Interior and Environment - Passed by the House on July 14 but no vote by the Senate.
• Labor/HHS/Education - Passed by the House and Senate Committees by July 14 but not voted on by either Chamber.
• Legislative Branch - Passed by the House on June 10 but no vote by the Senate
• Military/Veterans - Passed by the House and Senate, but three times Senate rejected a cloture motion required to vote on the conference report reconciling the differences between the House and Senate versions.
• State/Foreign Affairs - Passed by the House and Senate Committees by July 12 but not voted on by either Chamber.
• Transportation/HUD - Passed by the House and Senate Committees by May 24 but not voted on by either Chamber.

Although the required legislation is in different stages of the process, Congress is 0-13 with one week before the start of a new fiscal year. The Senate is already making preparations for a Continuing Resolution to keep the government from shutting down on October 1.

We'll provide more updates next week.

The Budget Process-As It's Supposed to Work

Congress has established a process for how the budget process is supposed to work. However, this process has not been followed for years.

Below is a quick synopsis of the process.

• The President delivers his proposed budget between the last Monday in January and the first Monday in February.
• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scores the President's proposed, which estimates the projected revenues and expenditures and the CBO results are compared to the estimates prepared by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
• The House and Senate pass a Budget Resolution outlining the revenue and spending priorities of Congress. As a Congressional Resolution,  the President does not sign the Budget Resolution.
• Congress passes 12 separate Appropriations Bills authorizing the specific spending by the various Departments and Agencies of the U.S. government.

The last time Congress passed all 12 appropriations bills on time was in 1994. For the last 20+ years, they have consistently used omnibus spending bills and continuing resolutions, where they combine more than one appropriations bills (or all of them), into one piece of must-pass legislation, to fund the government. 

Is it possible there is a correlation between the departure from the established budget process and the increase in annual budget deficits?

The next post will provide a status overview of the Fiscal 2017 budget and appropriations bills.